Africa
A Review of Recent Developments and Countries’ Approach to Libya
Africa, Egypt, Libya, News, Opinion 27 June 2020

Investigating the possibility of Egypt entering the Libyan war, the interests of Westerners and West Asian countries in the Libyan war

In recent years, Egypt, has emerged beside the UAE and the Saudi Arabia, as one of the supporters of Gen Haftar in the Libyan war; and with Turkey interference in the wars in northwest of Libya that led to extensive withdrawal of Libyan National Army (LNA) from clashes front, the role of Egypt has also became more prominent as the main supporter of Gen Haftar.
Now, with the confused situation in the Algeria, Egypt is considered as the unravel power in the North of Africa, and due to its proximity to Libya and its good military situation, has been focused by three other supporters of Gen Haftar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

According to this approach, in the recent days, Gen Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi the Egyptian president announced the readiness of this country’s army for supporting the LNA against the troops of Government of National Accord (GNA) and Turkish governments, and considered the Sirt and al-Jufra cities as the security red line of Egypt.

Al-Sisi that hit a heavy blow to the Muslim Brotherhood during the Egyptian revolution, and can be said that destroyed the power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt; now, in another step, is trying to inflict the second blow on the supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey and Qatar in Libya.

These topics can be examined in the different dimensions and in the several following cases:

1. Egypt and the consequences of Turkey presence in Libya:
Libya is the western neighbor of Egypt, and the insecurity and Turkey presence in Libya, is a major threat for Egypt. Turkey’s support from the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya can also ignite the ashes of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Sisi government will have the same fate to Hosni Mubarak. Naturally, al-Sisi needs to establish the security on western borders of his country to prevent from the regaining power by Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt; because as al-Sisi faces with challenges such as developments in Gaza and the Zionist regime, and also the activities of ISIS and militants in the Sinai peninsula in the east of this country. So, Egypt’s direct interference is possible, due to the issues that were mentioned.

2. The contradictory game of France:
The secret flow of trafficking of gold, uranium and oil to France from African countries such as Chad, Niger, Mali, etc  is done  through the al-Jufra and then the port of Sirt; and therefore, the French have taken a stance against the GNA in the strategic battle in the center of Libya. The behavior of colonial countries in civil wars, is the  dual or multilateralism, because their interests are never met by supporting from one side.

3. Russia viewpoint to Libya:
What is deduced from the Russian stances in recent years, is that the Russians do not see the Khalife Haftar as a suitable figure for fulfilling their policies on Libya. This issue can be seen in Russia’s not supporting from announcing the sovereignty by Haftar over Libya. Also, it’s said that Russia  is aware of Haftar relations with US, and full confidence to him has not yet been confirmed, and most of military supports are done with heavy contracts. In general, Russia supports Haftar as a military commander, for providing its own suitable situations and does not consider him a suitable person in the field of Libyan politics. According to some analysis in local sources, the Russians are likely want to return the Gaddafi family or a group similar to them to the power.

4. US and Libya:
In recent days, Gen Stephen Townsend, the US terrorist army commander in Africa and the US ambassador to Libya have arrived in Zuwara city for meeting with GNA officials.
About the details of this meeting and its results have not been released any news; but in the current situation the US is pursuing the two cases in Libya: 1. The Libyan oil resources 2. Preventing from Russian infiltrate.
Some analysts believe that Russia’s aim of establishment in Syria and Libya is to impose the pressure and imposing a situation of siege on Europe. Of course, only the official establishment of the Russian base in Libya will prove this claim and in otherwise, it can be said that the issue of siege of Europe by Russia is not more than an illusion. The Americans want to prevent from Russia’s re-infiltration in Libya, and in order to fulfilling of this issue, they are setting their policies in a way that the war conditions in Libya will continue, and in case of the victory of any sides in Libyan war, the situation be in their favor. Now, this aim can be achieved by leaving the Turkey free in Libya and supporting the Vifaq government, or to strengthen the UAE and Egypt supports from Haftar, comparing to Russia.

In general, Libya has been turned to the field of rivalry between Turkey and Russia in recent months, and with the LNA delay in capturing the Tripoli, the battlefield has been transferred from northwest to northern and central parts of Libya. Following these developments, Egypt has been seduced to interference in Libya, by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The interference that will lead to the direct confrontation between Sisi and Erdogan.

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