Opinion: What Does US. Want in Syria?
Conflict between different groups is US primary goal. Since a powerful stable central government in Syria means an end to Israel ambitions and Trump is playing in Syria’s court to cover up his failures in foreign policy.
Given recent developments in the region, particularly US decisions in northern Syria, the following highlights indicates Trump’s current policy in Syria:
A. Sharing the benefits with Russia and Turkey.
B. Keeping “Kurds” lever with separation inclinations.
C. Confronting Iran and Syrian government.
It is not clear what is the outcome of USA policy in Syria. Possible scenarios including “US forces pull out from some areas”, “increasing number of US forces in some areas and oil resources” and “hidden agreement with Turks or Russians”.
Unlike previous US Presidents, Trump uses a few consultants in the issues of west of Asia and as always there are differences between diplomats and generals.
But the first goal of USA in Syria is to exploit the oil resources. Trump addressed controlling the oil fields when he gave the news of al-Baghdadi death and it means USA does not have any plan to leave Syria and the end of ISIS is not what they want.
These acts are not only to confront the central government of Syria, Russia or ISIS but confronting Iran is more important. Specially now with imposing oil sanctions and maximum pressure campaign and even the possibility that USA uses the oil fields of Syria as a bargain to deal with Iran. Although it sounds unlikely, but from Trump, who is striving severely to negotiate with Iran, it’s not impossible.
Iran has not acted to confront USA directly yes, since the danger of Takfiris has not eliminated yet and Israelis are still attacking once in a while. Maybe Iran was waiting for USA to leave Syria, so did not take actions. Anyhow, USA controlling oil fields in Syria and Trump’s decision have changed the situation and even influenced Russians plan to control oil fields of north of Deir Ezzor.
USA presence in Syria will also provide their influence on Iran’s western border. The area has not a lot of influence in Iran but provides a good strategic depth in case of a war with Iran. On the other hand, gives USA the possibility to access Iran’s bases in Al Bukamal and disturb Iran’s plans to reach Mediterranean Sea.
From another point of view, USA presses Iran to reduce its forces in Syria and if there will be a negotiation, they bargain Iran’s retreat for leaving the oil resources to central government of Syria.
There is another possibility that Trump is using the oil fields of Syria to remove some threats for the coming presidential election.
Leaving Syria or Afghanistan can be similar to leaving Vietnam. In fact, Syria issue is a threat for USA and paying Obama’s heavy costs of war in Syria becomes a strong point for Trump in debates for election.
In conclusion, Trump using Hollywood style surpassing ISIS and killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and controlling Syria oil field is trying to keep its superpower credit in front of Russia and Europe, confronting Iran and Moghawemat, providing security for Israel and above all of them to win the presidential election.