Lebanon goes back to first step
Lebanon, the bride of the Middle East, has had a difficult year. From economic pressures and inflation and the unprecedented rise in the exchange rate to the explosion of the port of Beirut and the protests and the spread of the Corona virus and most importantly political instability. As Hassan Diab and his cabinet resign and Mustafa Adib resigns as Lebanese prime minister, the man always on the scene, or in other words, the former prime minister, Saad al-Hariri, announces his readiness and October 22 With 65 votes out of 120, he will be in charge of forming the Lebanese government. In this regard, the following points are noteworthy.
First. Saad al-Hariri and the Future Movement, and more generally the March 14 Alliance, are among the main founders of the status quo.
The fact that he enters the scene as a hero shows the deterioration of the situation.
According to some analysts, when the Lebanese compromising movement realized in the October protests last year that Hariri could no longer be supported due to the circumstances, he took control of the protests and implemented the statelessness project in Lebanon.
With various crises and pressure on the Diab cabinet that came to power after Hariri, they sought to blame the current situation on March 8 Alliance, which had a large presence in the Diab cabinet.
While in the worst case they were the heirs of the situation and not its founders. Now, with this tactical retreat in recent months, they are introducing Hariri as the last chance, even though, according to Nizar Hassan, Hariri himself represents the millionaires.
Second. Given the deplorable situation, Hariri and his entourage are expected to use a non-partisan or technocratic cabinet as much as possible and even avoid political disputes to maintain their relatively tarnished image.
For this reason, Hariri will try to advance the issue of Hezbollah with the help of the French order to accept Hezbollah as a whole and relatively peaceful changes in it, and not the Saudis and the likes of Samir Geagea.
Although it is not yet clear how Al Saud will react, which has a history of taking Hariri hostage and taking a clear stance on Hezbollah, and what would be the Al-Saud reaction to Hariri’s greater desire for France?
Contrary to Saudi Arabia’s vague positions, the Lebanese Forces Party party, led by Samir Geagea, has claimed that it has 15,000 troops and can fight Hezbollah! With all the above interpretations, it should be noted that Saad Hariri, who has French citizenship, also has Saudi citizenship, and it seems that the option of good police – bad police is more probable.
It goes without saying that Macron is trying to show himself as the savior of Lebanon in order to at least overcome the problems, given the US election and the involvement of Americans in internal affairs and trying to find an independent identity from the United States, as well as the history of Lebanese colonization and cultural closeness. However, his remarks and falling into the trap of Erdogan regarding the Prophet of Islam could affect the degree of his acceptance and the nature of the implementation of his plans in the Middle East and Lebanon.
Third. Hezbollah’s position must be judged beyond zero-sum thinking. Hezbollah did not declare its support for Hariri and only wished success to the future government and does not involve itself in Hariri’s possible mistakes.
And Hezbollah, on the other hand, by not creating a problem in the way of forming the government, says no to the continuing statelessness in Lebanon. However, it remains to be seen whether Hariri crosses the Shiite red line, the two ministries of finance and health.