New U.S.–Israeli Military Posture Against Iran Echoes the 12-Day War Model
Recent developments across the region suggest that the United States and Israel are actively preparing operational infrastructure for potential scenarios targeting Iran. The deployment of U.S. aerial refueling aircraft at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, their flights over Iraq and the broader region, and the arrival of the USS Ford aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean all point to a new strategic alignment—possibly signaling a limited military confrontation or a show of force aimed at political pressure.
A central focus of these maneuvers is logistical and operational support for Israeli fighter jets. During the previous 12-day war between Iran and Israel, American tankers played a crucial role in refueling Israeli aircraft over Iraq and Syria, particularly in the airspace above Syria’s Deir ez-Zor province. Now, with at least 30 Boeing KC-46 Pegasus and KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft reportedly in the region, aerial refueling operations could take place even closer to Iran’s borders.
Although the issue of Israeli jets entering Iraqi airspace was discussed in a recent meeting between Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji and Iranian military intelligence chief General Mirahmadi, the current U.S. deployment suggests refueling may occur near the Iran–Iraq border regardless.
If Iran’s air defense systems are suppressed or rendered ineffective, eastern Iran could become vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes. Refueled near the border, Israeli jets could target strategic sites deep inside Iran. There’s also a growing possibility of direct U.S. involvement, with American fighter jets and refueling support contributing to future operations. In such a case, a division of roles may emerge—with Israel attacking from the west and the U.S. from the south.
Another critical element is the ongoing surveillance by the U.S. Navy’s MQ-4C Triton drone over the Persian Gulf. These flights aim to gather real-time intelligence on Iranian military movements and air defense activity in the south. The Triton conducts radar and visual reconnaissance over Iran’s coastal zones, complementing broader strategic monitoring.
Overall, these developments suggest a shift toward a new phase of hybrid pressure against Iran—reminiscent of Western preparations prior to the 12-day war. While the exact timing of any escalation remains uncertain, the scale of U.S. deployments and the influx of weaponry into Israeli territory indicate that a new round of conflict may be inevitable.
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