Objectives, Consequences Of Possible Israeli Attack On Lebanon
Whenever public opinion in the world is focused on a place, the best conditions are provided for the implementation of grand plans, like a magician who draws the minds and senses of the audience to one side with one hand and executes his magic with the other. We are now at a time in history when the West Asia region is prone to great events. The 2024 Olympics in France have attracted the attention of the world and the media, providing the necessary breathing space for the Israeli regime to launch a military attack on Lebanon. A few days have passed since the visit of the prime minister of the Zionist regime to the United States, and speculation is growing about the goals of this trip. From influencing the US presidential elections to receiving financial and military aid, and most importantly, coordinating with the US to launch a military attack on Lebanon’s soil.
It should be mentioned that in a military battle, more important than the subject of the war itself is the answer to a few basic questions. Questions that determine the beginning, duration, type, level, and end of a war. What is the purpose of the war? What is the way out of the war? What will be the consequences of war for both sides of the conflict? And… If Israel also starts a war against Hezbollah, it will have no choice but to answer these questions. What we are looking for in this article is to provide a general picture of the possible answers to these questions.
As for the goals of the Israeli regime in this attack, it is certainly not possible to mention a single goal and suffice with that, because basically the realization of the goals is subject to conditions that make it possible to achieve them with ifs and buts. Inevitably, the initiators of conflicts always try to define a range of goals and seek to achieve the maximum of them, and if – for any reason – the maximum goal is not achieved, the other goals are expected to be achieved.
The most important and maximum objective of the Israeli regime in the fight against Lebanon is the annihilation of the Lebanese Hezbollah. However, it should be noted that this objective cannot be achieved in any way. First, Hezbollah, beyond its military wing, is considered a deep-rooted intellectual and ideological movement in Lebanon, which even beyond the Shia community, has strong supporters in Lebanon among other religions, tribes, sects, etc. As a result, it is not possible to imagine a future for the destruction of a popular and ideological movement by relying on military means.
From a military perspective, after 10 months of military warfare with its advanced and regular war machine, the Israeli regime has not yet succeeded in destroying the military and combat capabilities of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. It is a very small strip that has been surrounded by 360 degrees for many years and is located in a flat geography. The geography that is the most desirable place for the military operations of a well-organized and well-equipped army.
Now, taking into account the border geography of Lebanon and the Israeli regime, which is mountainous, it can be assumed that the plan of militarily destructing the Hezbollah movement is nothing more than a dream, and the Israeli army will not be able to destroy a tried and tested guerrilla force with all its might. Israel will fight fighters who have decades of experience in a variety of desert, urban and mountainous confrontations, from urban and mountainous battles and the Lebanese plains to later breathtaking fights in the deserts, cities and mountains of Syria.
Due to its lack of population and lack of geographical depth, the Israeli regime has focused on armor and air power. Both powerful arms of Israel will not be effective in a military conflict with Hezbollah. The Hezbollah movement is equipped with a variety of modern anti-armor weapons, and Israel’s armor in the plains and mountains of Lebanon will be only easy prey, as in the past 10 months, when every movement of the Israeli army in the Lebanese border line has been targeted. The air force of the usurping regime will also not be able to provide effective air support to the armored columns, because there are basically no visible military targets to destroy and bomb in the confrontation against guerrilla groups. From a military point of view, the destruction of Hezbollah is the maximum and at the same time the most unattainable objective for the Israeli regime.
Another goal of the Israeli regime is to keep Hezbollah fighters away from Israel’s borders so that Israel can reorganize the ordinary lives of its displaced people in the north in light of the decline of the daily attacks on the north of occupied Palestine. This goal has been repeatedly expressed as the demand of the occupying regime, and international and Lebanese officials have been asked to help withdraw Hezbollah fighters to the back of the Litani River. This is not a maximum goal, but it remains to be seen whether it can be achieved or not. From a military point of view, it should be said that the retreat of Hezbollah’s guerrilla forces, which used a vast network of caves, tunnels, concrete positions, etc. is almost impossible. The experience of the world’s great armies proves this, and where the Red Army of the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan and the advanced and large American army in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq have been unable to achieve this objective, the small army of Israel will not be able to do so.
But from another perspective, it is possible to realize this issue. The Israeli regime army’s main strategy is to rely on the destructive capability of the air force’s heavy and ultra-heavy munitions. In the first stage, the Israeli Air Force will brutally bomb all Lebanese military and infrastructure targets. The purpose of this is to increase pressures on the livelihood and lives of the Lebanese people in order to mount pressure of public and political opinion on Hezbollah and to force the Lebanese resistance movement to accept Israel’s conditions. On the other hand, the destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure, which means the beginning of a period of post-war reconstruction, and naturally, governments that are engaged in providing infrastructure and development funding will not pose a serious threat to their neighbors. If this stage does not lead to the realization of Israel’s demands, in the second stage, the Zionists will start the equation of mass murder. The regime’s goal in killing people is to force the other side to surrender. But now, this equation is not one-sided, and the resistance is capable of implementing both of these methods.
Addressing the consequences of the conflict is also an important part of the equation of war. On the one hand, Lebanon will be subjected to a heavy Israeli invasion and will certainly suffer a lot of losses. However, according to military analysts, Hezbollah is armed with highly accurate tactical missiles and a vast drone capability that is capable of accurately destroying any target in the small geography of occupied Palestine. As a result, if the Israeli regime starts a war on infrastructure or a genocide, Hezbollah will also be able to target Israel’s public and service infrastructure. Such a war would also be very deadly for Israel. At the same time, if Hezbollah has been able to acquire effective air defense systems in the past years, which is not unexpected, the Israeli regime’s war machine will also be contained in the sky to some extent, which will mean the complete failure of Israel’s military strategy.
Hezbollah has made the necessary preparations to destroy the armored power of the Israeli regime, as the strength of the Israeli ground forces, and it has sufficient and effective weapons, but the containment of the air force is an undeniable necessity. Targeting Israeli airports does not seem to stop the air force’s activity, as Israel has designed the highway network in such a way that it can be used as an airport, assuming that it is possible to attack airports in future battles. In fact, Israel is a large military garrison. The most effective way for Hezbollah to change the balance of the confrontation is to stop Israeli attacks and force Israel to accept the terms of resistance, which is to strike at Israel’s public and service infrastructure. Concerning targeting military and commercial fleets at sea – Hezbollah is well capable of doing so – and destroying power plants, refineries, silos, and food warehouses, etc. Israel will be under a real siege and will be completely paralyzed.
It seems that the Israeli regime is muddled about the initiation of war against Lebanon. The regime’s political and war strategies have not changed over the past decades, but the regional and military conditions of Israel’s enemies have undergone a serious change, and the resistance in the region has become highly equipped and capable. Under these conditions, Israel can start a war, but it does not have any plan to get out of it, and it may not achieve its goals, but it would also be forced to accept numerous demands.
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Mr. Karami
It seems to me that Y’ ve done a good and well balanced analysis.