According to the agreement, Turkey withdrew from its red line that had been announced as the target of its operations in Idlib; this red line was withdrawal of Syrian army to the behind of M5 road and lifting the blockade on Turkish observation posts; and Syrian army recent advances were practically stabilized. In contrast, Syrian army recent operation aim that was liberation of strategic roads of M5 and M4, was achieved. The M5 highway, road of Aleppo to Damascus, was liberated during recent operation of army and was stabilized in this agreement; and also M4 road, Saraqib to Latakia by this agreement, was emptied from presence of gunmen up to 6 km and will be secured by Turkey and Russia patrols. So, the recent advance in Jabal Zawiah is stabilized and the rest of southern borders of M4 path will be practically empty of gunmen and next advances to Idlib and Jisr Al shoghour will be facilitated.
This agreement is definitely a temporary one and will not last, especially because the M4 border parts, are the base of tenacious forces like the Turkistan Islamic party and Turkey even if wants, will have not easy way for evacuating them; and this issue will provide enough reason for the Syrian army advancing to Idlib and Jisr Al Shoghour.
Achieving to such an agreement, was the result of Syrian army continuous advances during the recent 4 months in Idlib province and Aleppo province, that in last step and with approaching to Idlib city, the most heaviest clashes occurred between Turkish army and gunmen backed by it from one side, and the Syrian army and Islamic resistance from other side.
The most sensitive and important of these clashes came after that Turkish army attacked Hezballah headquarters in an unexpected action, that 8 Hezballah fighters and several Afghan Fatemioun fighters were martyred, in this attack. Erdogan ordered this attack in the situation that before this, Islamic resistance forces(including Iranian and Hezballah and …) had not direct role in Syrian army recent operation in Idlib; and this was due to IRI political priorities, that had put non-tension with Turkey on its agenda and only supporting the Syrian army in the aspects of intelligence, artillery and drone.
But everything were changed after Turkey’s amateurish attack on Lebanese Hezballah, and was issued a statement for the first time by the name of Iran’s military counsellor center in Syria and was warned about consequences of this attack. After that day, Islamic resistance forces and specially Lebanese Hezballah participated directly in the liberation operation of strategic city of Saraqib.
Hezballah special forces named Qowat Al Rezwan took the eastern and northern axis of Saraqib under their control and Syria saw one of the most rare night urban operations in its 9 years history. Until the next morning, news of Saraqib liberation was released and practically the situation of battle field became against Turkey; that finally announce all of its political channels for convincing Russia and readiness for accepting an emergency ceasefire.
The result of the Turkish military recent intervention in Idlib in Syria named Spring Shield, should be considered as military and political failure; that is the result of not attention to its military and political capacities and opposite sides. In the meantime, hastily policies and hasty and amateurish actions including attack on Lebanese Hezballah intensified the situation and the consequences of Turkey’s action not limit to Idlib and even Syria and also will be not limited to them; and will have significant regional effects for it, specially in the public level.
The future of this not so stable agreement will be in favor of Syrian army and after stabilization of recent advances, will replace its human forces casualties and also the lost equipment and weapons. Advancing toward Idlib and Jisr Al Shoghour need some preparations that this ceasefire will provide the necessary time for it. It’s predictable that by the end of spring or summer of next year, the violation of ceasefire by the gunmen, will provide the necessary situation for the Syrian army advancing toward Idlib.
Finally, this victory should be considered as the result of resistance in the last week of this battle and especially the entering of Lebanese Hezballah, that frustrated Turkey’s hope. While Russia because of various reasons, had withdrew from the Saraqib war, in order to gain some interests in the regions under control of Syrian government against Islamic resistance, by Turkey; and also be occurred some conflicts in regional level, that beside the disruption of the other regional actors interests, still be the top determinant power; that was not successful in the first one and in the second one went ahead a bit; of course there was not any cost for it.