A Ceasefire In Southern Lebanon Appears Imminent

Amos Hochstein, the U.S. President’s special envoy to Lebanon, proposed a ceasefire plan that was approved by Hezbollah last week and announced to Lebanese government officials. Hochstein then traveled to Tel Aviv to brief Israeli officials on the proposal.

The Israeli cabinet is currently reviewing the ceasefire plan, with meetings to discuss the proposal starting this afternoon. The cabinet will vote to either approve or reject the plan, and Israel’s response to the ceasefire proposal is expected to be announced in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming speech.

The Lebanese government will also hold a meeting tomorrow morning to approve the ceasefire agreement.

The details of the agreement have yet to be disclosed, but recent discussions have centered around a 60-day, phased agreement that could be expanded in future rounds. Key topics in the negotiations have included:

1- Israel has demanded freedom of action in Lebanon, citing the ineffectiveness of Resolution 1701 in securing the northern borders. The Lebanese side, however, rejected this demand during discussions with Hochstein, considering it a violation of Resolution 1701. This point was the main source of contention in the negotiations.

2- Lebanon has requested the international community to establish a permanent land border along the Blue Line in southern Lebanon to prevent contact between Lebanese and Israeli forces. Lebanese officials have voiced concerns about deploying multinational forces for the ceasefire monitoring mission in Lebanon, preferring the presence of forces from an Arab country. On the other hand, Israel favors the deployment of forces from Western countries, and some progress has been made with the involvement of French and Italian forces.

3- The return of Lebanese refugees is contingent upon Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Israel, however, does not accept this clause, arguing it lacks meaning without the return of displaced Zionists to settlements in northern occupied Palestine. Consequently, Israel has requested to remain in Lebanese territory for 60 days following the ceasefire’s implementation to ensure the peace process, a condition opposed by the Lebanese side. Nonetheless, Zionist media claim that Lebanon has agreed to this clause.

4- The release of Lebanese prisoners has been a significant topic of discussion. If Israel does not agree to release them, it could lead to the abduction of Israeli soldiers and a resurgence of conflict.

Although Hezbollah and Hamas leaders back the ceasefire agreement in southern Lebanon and northern occupied Palestine (Israel), there is discontent in both Lebanon and Palestine. Opponents, referencing Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, argue that any ceasefire in Lebanon should also include a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

In Israel, Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have been vocal in their opposition to the ceasefire agreement. However, it seems that the majority of the Israeli cabinet members are leaning towards voting in favor of the ceasefire plan.

Hezbollah utilized all its resources to support the Gaza Strip during the 14-month conflict with the Zionist regime, significantly engaging Israel’s military forces and alleviating pressure on Gaza. Despite these efforts, the war persisted. Resistance axis leaders believe that extending the conflict in southern Lebanon under the present conditions is not advisable. They view a ceasefire on this front as a beneficial move for the entire resistance axis.