Washington and Concerns Over Increasing Oil Prices; the Impact of the Oil Price Surge on the Conclusion of the 12-Day War
Many analysts view oil price fluctuations in the Persian Gulf as a key factor in the war debate. Some believe that Trump’s worry about the oil shock resulting from the war in Southwest Asia played a major role in halting the conflict and maintaining the ceasefire. Accordingly, this report, drawing on reports and articles from leading think tanks and news outlets worldwide, along with recent developments in the war, will demonstrate that news about conflicts and exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel is largely driven by the risk premium—how the market perceives danger following the first incident that disrupts global trade—and the energy market’s assessment of the potential for escalating tensions. We will also show that this concern has been evident in market analyses and energy reports from the very beginning of the war.
