How will ISIS threats turn out in Afghanistan?
After 20 years of occupying Afghanistan by USA and NATO terrorist groups are still active, except that ISIS took position of Al Qaeda, Sipah-e-Sahaba, etc. But why?!
In majority of Afghanistan society it is believed that US and NATO soldiers presence is the solution of the security of Afghanistan. However, presence of occupation force makes the ignorant people to join the terrorist groups. One reason is the dilemma between dogmatic Taliban and pure Westernized idealogies. These two extreme trends made Afghans to either be scared of Taliban’s dogmatic way of government or to migrate abroad.
Considering cases of Iraq and Syria, this situation is ideal for terrorist groups such as ISIS to grow.
In definition of terrorism threats specially in Islamic countries we should say that both the victim and terrorist come from the Islamic societies. What is more important is the director of the situation, which is mainly hidden for most of the people.
The fact that expressions such as Islamic terrorism or Jihadis are used is only a cover up to divert the public thoughts away.
To solve the crisis in Afghanistan requires proximity of Islamic thoughts, forming a government above racial and political discords, thinking out of political dogmatism and changing the security structure. They come from analysing the history of the last several decades of Afghanistan.
Now we ask what is the form of terrorism threat in Afghanistan, which will emerge as ISIS?
The answer categorizes as follows,
1- Continuous activities of a group requires programing and providing in large scale and ISIS is fruit of a government system that one or more states support it. Presence of the members who support this in Afghanistan influences the situation a lot.
2- Considering the first part we examine ISIS activities:
a) ISIS activities like the past year will be limited to suicide attacks, IEDs, assassination and abduction.
b) ISIS operation begins with psychological warfare and anarchy, like in Iraq and Syria, and will continue to occupy some villages and towns until they compete with Taliban and other Afghanistan groups.
c) ISIS will dissolve in other terrorist groups and will change form which requires a separate analysis.
In general, the incidents in the last four decades of Afghanistan is an obvious controversial activities of countries which claim to fight terrorism. This failure is a sign that military is never a solution to the problems of this region. UK started and USSR, USA and NATO continued this wrong way and now Afghanistan is left with a pile up of different problems and destruction.