US great gamble in Iraq on New Year’s Eve!
December 30 attacks can be a fundamental turning point ; for getting all thing or losing everything . Both for US and for Islamic resistance in Iraq. But effects of this challenge will not confine just to Iraq and will affect on Syria, Lebanon and Yemen directly.
The US Army’s attacks against Iraqi Kataib Hizballah base near Alqaim city, have left 27 killed and tens injured. This unprecedented attack , was confirmed by US army’s terroristic center(CENTCOM) unexpectedly and even was released photos of attack moment just like attack against ISIS.
In the recent 90 days, US has been so active in political and civic field of Iraq. From field agents in IYLEP project to intellectual management of social networks with the help of Saudi or some Iraqi colleagues and also manipulation the Iraqi political process to exit the impasse. But what is more interesting , is that US claim that support Iraqi people by imposing sanctions against some Resistance members. While US is the former of the current political system in Iraq and has special portion in Iraqi sources and this country’s financial benefits by its big oil and security and military companies.
US attacks on Dec 30, 2019 against the Resistance groups in Iraq was a big risk and perhaps a bigger risk for Trump in the eve of US presidential election . US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense went to Florida to inform Trump about last night attacks!
But if we go beyond the domestic politics of US and focus on the Iraqi field, it’s clear that US is taking advantage of the current unstable situation in Iraq. A country with an temporary prime minister and challenge in forming a new cabinet, a semi-resigned president and streets full of chaos.
But what is caused US take such a gambling is a long expectation for destroying of Hashd Shaabi and making it weak. Last night attacks are a double- edged razor for US , because it can have so much strengths and also can be line of wane in Iraq!
Determinant factor : Resistance response!
Now all thing depends on the action of the Resistance groups and their supporters. It’s clear that if no proper response is given to these attacks, we will see the continuation and perhaps expansion of these attacks, especially if we see the inaction of the pro-Hashd Alshabi groups.
After nearly 90 days of various stages of street chaos and challenges at the political level, now it’s clear that regardless of the uninformed people or street chaos, managing these movements in the street floor, public opinion, or in social networks is done by centers abroad Iraq , that have macro aims in Iraq and then beyond this country.
So companionship of the street-floor protesters and their flow on social networks with these American attacks are predictable after months of trying to create anti-Iranian atmosphere.
This is a complementary part of US military strikes process to further undermine the Hashd Al Shaabi social and structural level of dissolution.
Although this is one of the worst scenarios, but it can be proven that this Americans risk may have a different situation. There is an opportunity that not only helps to confronting these attacks and preventing from their spread , but also changes the situation of Iraq developments in 3 recent months and returns the political, social and military balance to the pre-protests. Moreover , confines available options for US.
So the Resistance’s response to these attacks should be multilayer, a military response in the battlefield and also a response at the community level or on the streets.
The swift, decisive and explicit response of Resistance groups with the participation and companionship of various Iraqi pro-resistance in the military dimension and the mobilization of pro-Hashd Shaabi groups with religious, identity and anti-American sharing, can change Iraq’s equation against US and in favor of Resistance movement.
About the ability of military response by these groups has been proven that before this and with less equipment, forces and geographic accessibility, have been done heavy strikes against US in Iraq. Also a slight shift to an asymmetric battle and observing more protection principles with the cooperation and specialization of different aspects of this battle , will confine US response possibility.
Today, we see a sharp anger among the supporters of Hashed Shaabi and the Resistance because of the US attack and this anger has been intensified in recent 3 months that several hundreds of people (in Shiite provinces ) with the clear signs of Baathi , anti-Shiite and secular disrupted people’s security and have committed some crimes against people. In this situation, mobilizing supporters crowds of Resistance does not seem to be so hard.
Also continuing this inactive situation can reinforce majority of rioters and will despond the Resistance supporters, and even it’s possible that empower the opposition groups.
The presence of anti-occupation people with the religious identity and deep signs in Shiite parts of Iraq can reform Iraqi security and military forces mood that has been weakened heavily in 3 months and can lead to more convergence between Hashd Shaabi and other Iraqi armed forces.
If this presence, popular support and Resistance’s power of response in the field have a proper function, can be useful in solving Iraq’s political stalemate and also can give power to politicians involved in legal procedure for taking actions. In these situations, dependent or opponent politicians will accept these procedures.
Meanwhile have been taken good positions by various political currents against the US invasion in the last 3 days. Even the main persons of Sadr group supported of Kataib Hizballah and Resistance, and if they did not support the Resistance response in the future, they will at least take a silent or moderate stance.
We didn’t include the important and fundamental factor of “Marja” in this equation, because their silence is possible, but if they enter, the situation will certainly be different.
Finally should be noted that after three months of intense developments in Iraq, Dec 30 attacks can be a fundamental turning point ; for getting all thing or losing everything . For US and for Islamic resistance, too. But effects of this challenge will not confine just to Iraq and will affect on Syria, Lebanon and Yemen directly.
Written by : J.R.