Investigating Aspects of Possible Operation by Saudi Coalition in North of Hajjah
Saudi Coalition operation in this axis after AnsarAllah’s resistance in north and west of Haradh in recent months and after that AnsarAllah’s reclaiming operation in south and east of mount Al Nar halted. Now with Hajur area’s tribes rebelling in the last month in Kashar and Qarah districts, Saudi Coalition and Mansoor Hadi are sending troops and equipment to operate in this axis.
Yesterday, Mansoor Hadi ordered his troops to equip and deploy 8 battalions from Marib, Mahrah, Hadhramaut and etc. provinces to the north of Hajjah front.
Some sources reported that AnsarAllah sends 4 thousand troops to the area to end the rebels.
Before that, AnsarAllah asked other tribes of other districts to mediate between them and Hajur tribes but they did not accept it and the engagement between AnsarAllah and People’s Committees on one side and Hajur tribes on the other side are going for more than a month.
Considering the trend of engagements in recent months, Saudi Coalition and Mansoor Hadi did not succeed in Nar and Haradh fronts, so it is unlikely their attack will take place from these axes, but east of Hayran and the road to Ahem to reach Hajur area (yellow rectangle) is an easier route and it is predicted that Saudi Coalition operation main axis is this one.
At the moment, Hayran and Ahem triangle are under control by the Coalition and the direction of possible operation will be Haradh-Ahem road (red arrow).
The future of Hajur area will be one of the following:
1. Defeat and surround to AnsarAllah: which is more likely due to AnsarAllah’s advances and clearing Rahbah, Namarah, Mansourah mount and repelling attacks to Mandala, but if the Coalition front does not reach Hajur.
2. AnsarAllah’s defeat: which is impossible without the Coalition’s ground and areal support. Advancing in Haradh-Ahem axis due to the terrain of the area and AnsarAllah’s resistance will not be easy for the Coalition as well.
3. Ceasefire: which is impossible since they rejected the negotiations and due to the history of engagements in previous years, unless Hajur tribes are disappointed from receiving any support by the Coalition.
Nevertheless, confronting tribe’s rebel is not an easy task for AnsarAllah and these problems in northern fronts are serious threats for AnsarAllah. Since other tribes become bold in rebelling and also it consumes AnsarAllah’s strength.
We have to wait and see after Mansoor Hadi’s intrigue, aerial and maritime assaulting and surrounding by Saudi Coalition, Ali Abdullah Saleh separation, al Hudaydah battle and Baha’i’s intrigue, what is opposing and opportunist tribes’ plans?