Ansar Allah-Saudi coalition agreement; What are the outline and impediments of recent negotiations on Yemen?
Given the futile experience of the Stockholm Agreement and the partial enforcement of three stages of temporary truce, reaching an inclusive agreement between Ansar Allah movement and the Saudi-led coalition seems to be unlikely and out of reach. Seemingly, in a bid to reach a wide-ranging agreement, the two sides will re-enforce a temporary agreement, including issues such as the implementation of a ceasefire, the prisoner swap, the payment of Yemeni civil servants’ salaries from oil incomes as well as the re-opening of Sana’a Airport and Al Hudaydah Port, and then they will pay heed to internal affairs of the Arab country after resolving external disputes.
In contradiction of several reports on an agreement between the Saudi-led coalition and Ansar Allah to extend the truce and agree Ansar Allah’s conditions; no agreement has been reached in this respect so far, and dialogs between the two sides are still ongoing mediated by the UN and Oman. Ansar Allah’s most vital conditions to reach the extension of the temporary ceasefire are subjects such as a comprehensive end of hostilities, prisoner swap, paying salaries of employees from oil incomes, lifting Yemen siege through reopening Sana’a Airport and Al Hudaydah Port. The conditions have been among the issues, which have been discussed in the last years negotiations, but the conditions have never been approved by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, or they proposed different conditions to accept the Yemenis’ suggestions.
Nonetheless, the circumstances of the Saudi-led coalition have deteriorated as a result of the past year tensions among the factions, who are backed by the coalition; thus, Ansar Allah has become more powerful. The feebleness of the Saudi-led coalition and the failure of their military operation pushed them towards pursuing negotiations. The situation forced the US, Russia and the European countries to follow the attitude of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to interact with Ansar Allah.
Potential provisions of agreement between Ansar Allah-Saudi-led coalition:
The most significant matters debated in the talks between Ansar Allah and the Saudi coalition are issues such as an all-inclusive truce, prisoner swap, paying employees’ salaries from oil incomes, lifting Yemen siege by reopening Sana’a Airport and Al Hudaydah Port.
Foreign media outlets quoted an Ansar Allah official as saying that the Saudis promised to pay all the remaining salaries of Yemeni employees; while a Saudi diplomat said that the payment of civil servants’ wages is conditional on accepting security assurances such as setting up a buffer zone on northwest border of Yemen with Saudi Arabia. Concerning the prisoner swap, the two sides offered their own lists in March 2022 and finalized the prisoner swap agreement of 2,223 inmates following personal visiting of the detainees, but despite Ansar Allah announced its willingness, the Saudis have not taken any step to enforce the deal. The issue of reopening and developing flights at Sana’a Airport and the lifting of limits at Al Hudaydah Port are also matters that have faced buts and ifs by the Saudi-led coalition, when it comes to inspection; so, the agreements have not been entirely implemented.
There are also similar disagreements in other issues, and as said by Ansar Allah officials, if the Saudis and Emiratis show willingness to reach an agreement, the process to achieve this goal and end of the conflict and establish peace in Yemen seems not be a hard work.
What are the impediments to the Ansar Allah-Saudi agreement?
Besides the Saudi-led coalition’s hesitation and lack of seriousness in reaching a peace agreement with Yemen, the tensions among the various groups under the Saudi-led coalition, from the Southern Transitional Council and the Reform Party to the militants of Tareq Saleh and other factions and influential figures, are stumbling block in the way of achieving an agreement. The struggle between the Islah Party and the militants of the resigned government has been spread to the Yemeni city of Sion in northern Hadhramaut Governorate and the city of Marib in Marib Governorate, and the struggle over controlling oil fields and administrative offices remain in an indirect way.
The Southern Transitional Council, following clashes with the Islah Party and the Al-Qaeda terrorist group in Abyan Governorate and their retreatment from the city of Al-Mukalla and the Al-Anad base and the Ras al-Ara area in Lahij Governorate, backed away from its claim to split the southern governorates and focused on maintaining its current position in order to aggregate its forces in the occupied areas of Yemen.
Another matter that gets in the way of the peace process in Yemen is the colonizing and usurping efforts made by foreign states, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States, as well as the destructive role of European and Zionist companies, when it came to looting wealth in the war-torn country. For instance, the Emiratis have extended their presence on Yemen’s southern coastal areas.
They constructed numerous military bases between Aden and Abyan with the support of Abdul Latif al-Sayed militants on the beaches and oil-rich zones of Shabwah occupied with the support of Al-Amaliqa militants and in Al-Mahrah Governorate backed by Mohsen Mursa’s militants following their moves in Socotra Island, Mayun, Abdul Kori, Al-Rayan base and Ras Sherwin beaches in recent months.
Read more: Where is the UAE’s biggest military base on the coast of Hadhramaut?
The United States and Israel with the support of the UAE and some Yemeni factions are pushing forward their secret projects in Yemen’s eastern and central areas. The essence and details of the plans are not fully clear, but the continuation of the conflict, the looting of oil and other precious resources, the control of strategic locations and lastly the breakup of Islamic states are the outlines of their plot.
Concerning the Al-Ghaydhah Airport, Saudi Arabia is pursuing the plan of annexation of eastern Yemen to its territories and the construction of an oil pipeline from the Saudi kingdom to the coastal areas of the Al-Mahra Governorate, while the Saudi have experienced less success in pushing forward their objectives in the central and southern regions of Yemen. To this end, they have misused Europe’s requirement for oil resources and provided the European companies with the opportunity to contribute to the projects of exploration and extraction of crude oil in Yemen.
Read more: Latest Military Map of Yemen; Knowing the Parties Involved in the Yemen War (Map Update)
Conclusion:
Given the unproductive experience of the Stockholm Agreement in December 2018 and the imperfect employment of the three truce periods from April 2 to October 3, 2022, the possibility of direct achievement of an inclusive agreement by Ansar Allah and the Saudi-led coalition seems to be unrealistic and out of reach. Seemingly, the two sides chose a temporary period of several months of ceasefire and after successful implementation of the plan, they would resolve Yemen’s external problems through signing an agreement, and then they would form a new government and resolve internal problems with the Saudi-backed factions to pave the way for reaching a comprehensive agreement.
Iran’s positive participation and the negotiations with Saudi Arabia seem to be complementary to the intra-Yemeni talks as well. Iran-Saudi Arabia negotiations’ development or stoppage would not change the framework of Ansar Allah’s demands, but the talks are expected to affect the process, and even Ansar Allah’s measures in this path would assist Iranians’ stances.
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