Investigating Aspects and Reasons Behind UAE Withdrawal From Yemen War
Unbalanced teamwork between UAE and Saudi Arabia in Yemen battle resulted in heavy loss and casualties to both of them and it is one of the main reasons that UAE is retreating. A strange retreat that some media and analyzers think there is a hidden agreement between UAE and Ansar Allah!
Saudi coalition’s operations defeats in al Hudaydah, Sanaa, Saadah, etc. and failure in reaching the goals resulted in UAE decision on retreating Emirati forces from different fronts in Yemen. However UAE doesn’t consider it as a retreat but rather they say by training and replacing almost 90k troops from other countries (Yemeni, Sudanese, etc.), there is no need for Emirati forces.
In general it can be said that UAE is trying to reduce international pressure and reduce loss of Emirati troops by replacing them with Yemeni(Hizam al Amni) and Sudanese troops mainly.
Anyhow this retreat can have 4 main reasons:
1. UAE military defeat in different battles against Ansar Allah:
Saudi Coalition’s forces repelled from Ibb province borders and later Ansar Allah’s recent operation in north of Al Dhale and reclaiming western and northern districts of this province, in despite of several years of airraid and siege against Ansar Allah, showed the inefficiency of these expensive operations which seemed obvious to be successful by Saudi Coalition.
Troops led by UAE are usually located in south of Yemen, which have a lot of political issues, assassinations in Aden and Ansar Allah’s drone attacks.
UAE who bore the main ground battlefield, by opening this new front made UAE vulnerable against Ansar Allah’s missile and drone attacks and did not have the defense readiness against this style of Ansar Allah’s attacks. Also lack of troops, Sudan’s domestic issues and UAE’s interference in Libya, preoccupied Emirs of UAE that forced them to retreat.
Thus it is safe to say one reason for UAE to retreat is numerous defeats imposed by Ansar Allah.
2. Ansar Allah’s threats to attack UAE’s soil:
Ansar Allah’s success in developing drone and missile capabilities, extended Ansar Allah’s threats to reach UAE soil. Release of footages showing Ansar Allah’s drones attacks to Abu Dhabi airport, revealed the importance of these threats. Apparently the pressure of Ansar Allah’s threats to attack UAE is another reason for UAE’s retreat.
3. Internal conflicts of UAE:
The disputes between Emirs of UAE that sometimes are reflected in media are mainly about financial issues and to accuse each other of inability in leading the state. Some of the Emirs do not want to pay for the Yemen’s battle and call it a useless war.
Although the struggle for power is not serious but can be a reason UAE is retreating from Yemen.
4. Negotiation and reaching an agreement between UAE and Ansar Allah:
The main and of course strange reason proposed in some media and analysis is the negotiation and agreement between Ansar Allah and UAE; apparently due to recent words of Sheikh Naim Qassem , Deputy of General Secretary of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Regardless of political statements, no official sources from either side confirms such theory. Even in the case of a possible negotiation, the results cannot be the only reason of UAE’s retreat.
Negotiation is a deal, thus, what would UAE get in case of leaving battlefields and islands of Yemen?
UAE’s retreat from Yemen has several obvious and non obvious reasons, which were mentioned here. Most of analyses showed Ansar Allah’s power decay in the wake of Ali Abdullah Saleh’s death but actually it is reversed by Ansar Allah’s leader’s plans and UAE’s retreat shows it.
UAE leaders have discerned that confronting Ansar Allah should be turned into a civil war. Thus their presence in the battle is an obstacle and expensive.
This retreat which has been broadcasted via some news and evacuating some islands and bases but it shows a sign of defeat anyways.
Ansar Allah and UAE negotiations, if exist at all, stabilizes Ansar Allah’s victories first and isolates Islah party with its Muslim Brotherhood tendencies under leadership of Mansour Hadi, who has no supporter other than Saudi. Therefore, it is not unexpected if Saudi requests a negotiation with Ansar Allah or evacuates Yemen.