Will Middle East Region’s Incidents Spark The Third World War? Part One
Neglecting the numbering of world wars from beginning of history, recent evolutions show a new leaf in history is turning. A situation, which starts with a world war. Unlike previous wars, in which two superpowers confronted such as Roman-Persian empires or USSR-USA, it is a confrontation between two alliances, whose differences are not for the recent century but roots back to thousand years of history.
In recent years, countries with power and authority (specially in west of Asia) to achieve their goals form economic, political and recently military alliances.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, NATO (to confront USSR and then Russia), Saudi-led Coalition (to confront Islamic Resistance, Moghawemah) among others are some examples and now in west of Asia and in post-Takfirism (extremism), western countries to implement a new plan.
A plan that Prof. Aleksandr Dugin (Russian strategist) believes Sergei Skripal terror and chemical attack to Douma are introduction to third world war and Abdul Bari Al- Atwan (famous Palestinian analyst) says that according to recent Trump’s assertions, assault of the West will span beyond attacking T4(Tiyas) airbase and even Russian positions are threatened by USA and its allies!
To enlighten different aspects of the recent incidents, answers to some questions out of many questions are examined:
1. What will happen if war starts?
In one plan, USA and the Zionist regime and other allies attack some of the bases in Syria (similar to the missile attack to Shu`ayrat airbase) that Syria answers in three ways:
Foreign bases in occupied Palestine will be targeted or US bases inside Syria such as al-Tanf and Ayn Eissa and etc will be targeted, or even no military retaliation and only diplomatic solutions.
If in these attacks Moghawemah(Resistance) forces are attacked too, probably a response similar to first or second will be used and if USA responses again, Moghawemah responses back and so on until one side stops, otherwise this results in a wide war spanning the whole world similar to the final years of war between Iran-Iraq which resulted in oil export difficulties from Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf. In this case, not only Strait of Hormuz but also Bab al-Mandab Strait and Suez Canal are threatened.
2. Does Moghawemah(Resistance) have enough strength to answer USA and its allies or even the recent attack to T4 airbase?
Considering the current situation (economic problems in Iran, Iraq being busy with elections and still dealing with ISIS, Syria engaged in a war and dealing with state decomposition, AnsarAllah under air raids and siege and Russia’s complicated and unknown stands) the answer is very difficult, however there is preparation for engagement at all levels. In addition, Iran’s Sword of Damocles, i.e. Hezbollah, is on the throat of Israel.
3. In the case of a war, what will be the reaction of Saudi Alliance?
There are two possibilities:
First is that they participate in the war, in this case the harshest reaction of Moghawemah(Resistance) will be for Riyadh and Saudi bases after occupied Palestine. Considering troubles of Saudi including domestic protests (suppressions in al Awamiyah and Qatif), war with Yemen and cut relations with Qatar, their engagement with a bigger war will result in their removal from the region.
In second possibility, they do not engage in war and only pay the West for the war. In this context, we refer to crown prince of Saudi who said there is a high chance of engagement with Iran in the next ten to fifteen years and indeed current situation is surprising for him. He is in a trip to Europe and negotiation with powers such as France. However Macron, president of France has always insisted on solving the problem by negotiation and demanded to limit Iran’s missile power and exiting it from the region.
4. Which areas will be involved?
The most immediate points to be attacked are US bases in north of Syria, occupied Palestine and other US bases in the region from Bahrain to Iraq are at higher level of reaction. Military ships and tankers also will not survive.
5. What will be the result of war?
According to studies of American Thinktanks during the time of George Bush (after Afghanistan war and during the military drill of millennium challenge) the cost of fighting with Iran is very high and it causes a high spike in oil price and up to 20 thousand of casualties for US and allies.
On Iran’s side there is no study but indeed the casualties will be severe too.
But it is noteworthy that US tried to attack Iran from 1979 revolution several times and they know that the situation has changed from early years after revolution and Iran-Iraq war time and even after Sadam’s fall. So the casualties should be more than 20 thousand or the oil price should go even higher and also it can result in Saudi and Zionist regimes’ extinction.
This is not a slogan and by studying the recent situation of Saudi Arabia (with reasons mentioned in third question) and Zionist regime (due to Moghawemah preparation in Palestine and the narrow width of this region up to Mediterranean Sea), they are very likely to extinct.
The confrontation between Moghawemah and the West is unavoidable and considering Russia’s effort to reduce the stress, passive assertions and silence of political and military officials, it is not very impossible that a severe war starts in a few days.
Of course Trump’s threats and limited attacks and also sending messages via Russians and other pressure levers are to make Iran withdraw from victory and its position in the region specially in Syria, since the next step of Moghawemah is to end Israel in occupied Palestine and they have not seen themselves closer to extension in recent years than now!
In the end, we can say that there is very high chance that US and Israel attack limitedly to Syria’s or Moghawemat’s positions. Beside military attacks, they will put political pressure to restart negotiations and these pressures might end up in “withdraw-missile negotiation-destiny similar to Libya” or it might end up in a severe war, which is called third world war(WW3) by Aleksandr Dugin or hot war by Abdul Bari Al- Atwan and the winner is the one who persists more.