The Situation of Political Currents in Yemen’s Political Sphere
The political and social forces of Yemen in the past decades, are categorized into four current:
1. Zaidi ( including three groups, one is close to Iran, one to Saudi Arabia & Zaidi intellectuals )
2. Republican ( with Arabic ethnical tendencies towards Egypt & United Arab Emirates )
3. Muslim Brotherhood – Salafi ( close to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey )
4. Southerners ( with unification, Seperatist, Sufi & Salafi tendencies )
Until 1962, the unipolar (political) system of Zaidi(1) was ruling in Sana’a.
From 1962 to 2000, the bipolar system of Saleh-Al-Ahmar(2&3) was ruling in Sana’a and with oppressing the two Zaidi(1) & Southern(4) current, Yemen seemed to be stable.
From 2000, Ali Abdullah Saleh, with the help of Zaidi(1) current, tried keep Muslim Brotherhood-Salafi(3) current away from power in order to make preparation for presidency of his son.
Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh. but the 2011 revolution led to his downfall.
The GCC’s, (Persian Gulf Cooperation Council) plan was an attempt to keep “Bipolar” system(2&3) in power and keep Zaidi & Southern current away from center of power.
However, with regards to downfall of Ali Abdullah Saleh, their efforts led to dominance of Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood current over Sana’a.
The dictatorship of Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood current in Sana’a, led to convergence of Houthi(1) & Saleh(2), and finally in 2014, Ansarallah entered Sana’a and the Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood current was ousted from Sana’a.
With Saleh’s death in 2017, the Zaidi(1) “Unipolar” system came into power once again in Sana’a, and the system put itself against these three other groups which despite their ideological & historical differences, are converged now.
Regarding to failure of all these four currents to rule over yemen alone, the chances for Ansarallah’s survival in Sana’a is very low. Although the repetition of past is not certain, but it is probable.
United Arab Emirates, which are in fact representing Britain, managed to make majority of southerners(4) & leftovers of Saleh’s system(2) dependant to itself. However, The Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood current(3) which is the main force in Hadi’s organization, is supported by Saudi Arabia and has issues with UAE.
But how the UAE managed to contain “Bin Salman” so that the initiative don’t fall into the hands of Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood current?
About this matter, it has been said that attacking non-military targets in Yemen and making it public in medias is one of the tactics of UAE. Even in the popular incident of “October 2016 Sana’a funeral airstrike” (مجزرة الصالة الکبری) in Kholan tribe which was held for father of former interior minister Jalal al-Rowaishan, around 17 commanders of Hadi’s army were killed. in similar cases, serious cases are ongoing against “Bin Salman” in international community, and UAE is using it as an instrument to control “Bin Salman”.
UAE’s scenario to continue the war, is to gain control over Yemen’s coasts & ports and to make Ahmed Abdullah Saleh, Ali’s son, ruler of Yemen. If this scenario happens, the Zaidi(1) current will be restricted to “Azal” region, the Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood(3) to “Saba” region.
The Britain which was ousted out of “Aden” in 1967, is coming back to this region, which is one of the strategic regions in the world. However, this time they are pursuing another goal and thats weakening “Shia Political Islam (Zaidi)” & Sunni Political Islam (Muslim Brotherhood)”. Britain knows it better that the ruler of “Sana’a”, will have control over “Aden” too, so Britain can’t leave Sana’a alone and give it to Zaidis or Muslim Brotherhood.